In the past, when we have written about how to bet baseball, we explained how underdogs with high totals have been profitable for sports bettors, but until now had not offered any evidence to support this assumption. The theory is very basic: high totals lead to more unpredictability and that volatility benefits the team receiving plus money (i.e. the underdog).

To test this theory on how to bet baseball, we used our Bet Labs software to look through more than eight years of MLB betting data. We first chose to focus solely on underdogs by using the “Favorite/Dog” filter, and then continued by adding our “O/U” filter and steadily increased the total by a half-run starting at 6. Our belief was that as the total increased, we would see a constant increase in our return on investment (ROI).

The table below, which uses line data from Pinnacle, shows the record for all underdogs as the total escalates.

Outside of the decrease between 8.5 and 9 and 10.5 and 11, we noticed that both the winning percentage and ROI increased as the total became higher. In fact, simply betting every underdog in games where the total was at least 10 would result in a winning system. This is not a recommended betting system, but it does show a definitive edge for shrewd sports bettors.

Today, there are no games with a total of at least 10, however both the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are worth monitoring as they are underdogs in games with a total of 9.5. Historically, games played at Coors Field, Fenway Park and Rangers Ballpark in Arlington have most frequently had a total of at least 10, so we would recommend keeping tabs on the Rockies, Red Sox, and Rangers, respectively.

Would you like to add more filters to this system? Schedule a live demo with our BetLabs manager and you can begin creating your own winning betting systems today.

The post How to Bet Baseball: Take Underdogs With High Totals appeared first on Sports Insights.

At Sports Insights, our sports betting systems typically focus on the MLB money line, but customers often ask us about whether they can make money with baseball run line betting. For those who are unfamiliar, the “run line” is similar to the spread in sports like football or basketball. Instead of betting that a team will win the game straight up (money line betting), you instead bet with a run line of 1.5. A favorite would be listed at -1.5, meaning that they would need to win by at least two runs to cover the spread. On the flip side, an underdog would be listed at +1.5 and would need to either win straight up or lose by one run for a bettor to cash in.

Many bettors like this strategy because it allows them to get plus money on the favored team. For example the Tampa Bay Rays are -145 favorites tonight against the Boston Red Sox; however, a bettor could get a Tampa Bay run line at -1.5 (+150) at a number of books. That means if the Rays won by at least two runs, somebody with a $100 bet on the Tampa Bay Run Line would win $150. On the contrary, that same $100 bet on the Rays moneyline would have earned just $68.97.

Knowing that you can always find plus money on baseball Run Line favorites, we were curious as to whether we could find a profitable MLB Run Line system using our BetLabs software. Our goal was to use the following historically profitable MLB betting trends to create a winning system:

1. Betting Against the Public.
2. High totals (over/under) increase the unpredictability of the game, which tends to benefit the underdog.
3. Buy on bad news, sell on good. Specifically, we’ve observed that teams in the midst of a losing streak tend to be undervalued.

The first thing we did was launch our BetLabs software and select two basic factors to look at: home teams and underdogs. (To clarify, a moneyline favorite will typically be a baseball Run Line favorite as well — even if they are receiving plus money on the vig.) When we noticed that all home dogs had produced a record of 2,871-2,340 with just -5.54 units, we were fairly confident that layering a few more simple filters could result in significant profits.

Our next logical step was to focus solely on games where the underdog was in a range of -105 through +220. Adding this simple factor trimmed down the number of results significantly and produced a record of 379-511 with +41.4 units won and a 4.7% return on investment (ROI). Although this alone would be a profitable system, we wanted to fully utilize the wide array of filters that are available within Bet Labs.

By focusing solely on games with a total of at least 7, we saw our units won increase to +55.24 while the ROI jumped to 6.3%.

Since betting against the public has been the cornerstone of our success, the next logical filter to add involved the spread betting percentage. When we examined teams fitting this criteria that were also receiving less than 40% of spread bets, our units won leaped to +51.25 while our ROI increased to 9.4%.

But why stop here? We know that the public tends to overvalue teams in the middle of winning streaks while undervaluing teams in the midst of a losing streak, which fits perfectly into our “buy low, sell high” philosophy. Simply focusing on teams in the midst of a 1, 2 or 3 game losing streak slightly cut down on our units won, however it caused our return on investment to soar up to 19.3%.

As you can see, this system has produced consistent gains from year to year although this season the system is just 2-3 with a loss of 0.5 units. BetLabs customers have access to all of this information, and can now have all of their current game matches forwarded to either their cell phone or e-mail.

Would you like to add any filters to this system? Do you think you can build a more profitable MLB Baseball Run Line system? Sign up for a free one-on-one BetLabs demo to see what this powerful software can do.

The post How to Profit From MLB Baseball Run Line Betting appeared first on Sports Insights.

The NFL season never seems to end.  Once a champion is crowned, we immediately start to look at 40-yard dash times and try to keep up with the quarterback carousel.  Now that the NFL Draft has concluded, football bettors are itching for the next big day of the schedule: the release of NFL season win totals.

With the release of point spreads for weeks 1-16 by Cantor Gaming over the weekend, we are one step closer.  But why wait?  With the point spreads and a few calculations, we can project NFL season win totals for each team right now.

To do this, we can easily convert a point spread into a winning percentage for every game this year. For example, a 3-point favorite has an expected winning percentage of 59.37%.  Therefore, every time a team is favored by 3 points, we can give them credit for .5937 wins.  Conversely, a 3-point dog would then receive .4063 wins (1-.5937).

By extrapolating this over the course of the entire season, you can come up with the following Over/Under projections:

Note: Week 17 spreads were approximated by using the previous meeting between the two teams and adjusting for home field advantage.  Since all week 17 games are divisional games, we already have a baseline to use.

Teams of Interest

The 49ers and Seahawks are the NFC favorites to reach the Super Bowl and these projections fall right in line with that thinking.  With the public gushing over both teams, do not be surprised if these Over/Unders open higher than our suggested totals.

The Ravens may be the defending champions, but they still have a lot of question marks with a litany of key players leaving via free agency or retirement.  They also play in the AFC North, which is the only division to feature three teams with totals of 8.5 or more and figures to be very competitive all season.

With Aaron Rodgers now signed for a bajillion dollars, you should be able to pencil in the Packers for 10 wins every year, right?  The math says not so fast, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that the other three teams in their division are expected to at least contend with 8 projected wins.

The Dolphins made a bevy of moves in the offseason to improve their team, but are only favored in 5 games by the oddsmakers.  But with 12 of Miami’s games featuring a spread of 3 points or fewer, a handful of key turnovers or lucky bounces could put them in the wildcard hunt.

RG3 led the Redskins to a division title last season, but coming off of major knee surgery may have oddsmakers a little unsure about what to expect this season.  With most of the team returning, it is a little surprising to only see them projected to go 7-9.

What do you think?

Which teams are being overvalued or undervalued by the oddsmakers as afar as their projected NFL season win totals go?  Are the 49ers and Seahawks locks to go 12-4 or 13-3?  Would you dare bet on the Raiders Over?  Let us know what you think in the comments section.

The post What Will the NFL Season Win Totals Be For Your Favorite Team? appeared first on Sports Insights.

With the NBA postseason in full swing, the NHL Playoffs are set to begin on April 30th and the team at Sports Insights has developed some profitable betting systems to use during the NHL Stanley Cup run. Keeping consistent with our contrarian strategies, we’ve found that betting against the public once again proves valuable while using our Bet Labs software.

To start, we know historically in the NHL that when betting against the public in the regular season, road underdogs have fared better than home underdogs. Since the 2005 regular season, road underdogs receiving less than 45% of moneyline bets have an overall record of 1712-2654.  Though the system has a losing record, it has still produced a profit of +28.24 units and a +0.6% Return on Investment. Because it’s unrealistic to bet every match with this system due the sheer volume of games in the regular season, filtering the public betting percentage down to <23% of moneyline bets results in a much higher ROI of +7% and more than +60 units won (overall record of 325-538).

Regular Season Road Underdogs and Betting Against the Public since 2005

Similar to its regular season success, the contrarian approach has worked in the NHL playoffs as well. Over the last six postseasons, visiting underdogs receiving <40% of moneyline bets have profited +24.61 units with an ROI of +13.1%. If you’re a more patient bettor, filtering the system to <23% of public bets has a sample of just 25 games but with a record of 14-11, has produced +17.85 units won and an astounding ROI of +71.4%. When we examined these systems a little further, we found that there has been even greater success over the last three postseasons.  In the past three NHL Playoffs, betting all road underdogs receiving <40% of moneyline bets propels the ROI to +40.6% with +38.18 units won and an overall record of 50-44.

Since there’s always a level of desperation in postseason games, we wanted to revisit the zig zag theory to see if there was any value on teams coming off of a loss. We created a simple system looking at playoff teams coming off of a loss, and immediately saw a bias towards visitors. We then took it a step further and found that road playoff teams coming off a 1, 2, or 3-game losing streak have gone 97-104 since the 2007 postseason, good for +26.45 units won and an ROI of +13.2%. When we add our “betting against the public” filter to road teams getting <40% of moneyline bets, the ROI excels to over 40% and nearly +28 units won (overall record of 34-35). Looking at just the last three postseasons below, the system has had even more success, earning a profit of +25.24 units and ROI of +63.1%.

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To summarize, we’ve found success in the NHL Playoffs betting against the public and filtering the road teams rather than home teams.  Desperation also plays a big role, earning a profit for bettors willing to take visitors coming off a loss or losing streak.

We’d love to get your thoughts on the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs — Do you like to lay the chalk on the favorites, or do you like parity to take over in the postseason? Is it worth betting against the Penguins and Blackhawks, or are they destined to meet in the Finals? There are currently four games that fit one of the above systems so as always, check out our new and improved NHL Betting Trends to see which way the public is leaning and which teams to fade during the postseason.

The post How to Make a Profit Betting the NHL Playoffs appeared first on Sports Insights.

The first round of the 2013 NFL draft commences Thursday at 8 p.m. ET as teams search for the best young talent from the college ranks, meaning it’s time for 2013 NFL Mock Draft picks and discussion. Last season, the first round produced such superstars at Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson, Luke Kuechly and Doug Martin, but who will be the top names selected this year? With no consensus from NFL Draft experts like ESPN’s Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, we were curious as to what the oddsmakers thought of this year’s draft.

Right now, both McShay and Kiper have the Kansas City Chiefs selecting Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel with the first overall selection, so we looked up the NFL draft player props at Bovada to determine whether this was the consensus. Although there is no proposition bet directly correlating with the top pick, it’s interesting to note that there are no other prop bets involving Joeckel except the outside possibility (+700) that he goes number two to the Jaguars.

If we presume that the Chiefs take Joeckel with their pick, our attention quickly turns to the Jacksonville Jaguars at two. This team has more holes than a sieve, and is in a position to simply take the best player available. According to Bovada’s prop page, Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher (+100) is the favorite to go second, followed by Oregon DE Dion Jordan (+200), BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah (+350), the aforementioned Joeckel, and the long shot — West Virginia QB Geno Smith (+1,500).

At number three, there seems to be a strong consensus that Florida DT Sharrif Floyd will be the Raiders’ selection. At 6’3″ 300 pounds, Floyd would be able to step in for the recently departed Tommy Kelly and help an Oakland defense that finished last season ranked 28th in the NFL in points allowed.

In his first season as head coach of the Eagles, Chip Kelly will have some tough decisions to make with the fourth pick. Although Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson (+150) is considered the frontrunner, other options include DT Star Lotulelei (+175) and DE Dion Jordan (+200) who played under Kelly at Oregon. It’s also important to note that this pick could easily be shopped with the Eagles trading down to acquire multiple draft picks. In fact, Bovada has posed the question, “Will the Eagles trade the 4th pick overall?” with “Yes” currently a slight dog at +170.

The fifth pick brings even more confusion as Lane Johnson (+125) is also the odds-on favorite to be selected here. However, if we assume that he has already been taken, other possibilities for the Detroit Lions include Ezekiel Ansah (+200), Eric Fisher (+300) and Alabama CB Dee Miliner (+450).

The table below compares the most recent 2013 NFL mock draft picks from Mel Kiper and Todd McShay to these oddsmaker projections to see if there are any discrepancies.

While there are some differences between McShay and Kiper, you can see that McShay’s 2013 NFL mock draft predictions actually line up identically with these oddsmakers projections. Still, if you did feel that Kiper has more credibility than McShay, you might want to lay a bet on Ansah to the Jags at +350 and Miliner to the Lions at +450. Strangely enough, there are no prop bets involving Geno Smith going to the Eagles.

In fact, according to the odds from both Bovada and Sportsbook.com, Geno Smith’s draft position will depend on the actions of the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills at numbers 7 and 8, respectively. Both of these organizations are in dire need of a franchise quarterback, but after trading for Carson Palmer, the Cardinals may be looking to address other needs with their first round selection.

At number eight, the Bills are still looking for a QB, but keep an eye out for Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib. The 6’2″ gunslinger played for first-year Bills coach Doug Marrone at ‘Cuse, so don’t be shocked if Geno isn’t even the first quarterback selected.  That said, Geno Smith’s over/under has been set at 8.5 but could slip substantially if both Buffalo and Arizona pass on the former Mountaineer.

Other fascinating over/under draft props include Tavon Austin at 13.5, Eddie Lacy at 22.5 (with heavy juice on the over), Matt Barkley at 37.5, Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu at 75.5 and Marcus Lattimore — whose season ended prematurely due to a dislocated right knee — at 84.5.

Of course, all eyes will be focused intently on Notre Dame LB Manti Te’o — and not just to see if there’s an empty chair next to him reserved for Lennay Kekua. Bovada has posted an over/under of 25.5, although there is currently heavy juice on the under. Right now Mel Kiper has the controversial linebacker going 20th to the Chicago Bears while McShay projects that the Vikings will snatch up Te’o with the 25th pick.

Looking for other trends to monitor? Oddsmakers expect the first round to be heavy with defensive players (over/under 19 defensive players) and light on offensive playmakers (over/under 3 receivers).

The post 2013 NFL Mock Draft: An Oddsmaker’s Take appeared first on Sports Insights.

Early Monday, Yahoo! Sports published an article by Jeff Passan analyzing the dropoff in velocity for MLB starting pitchers, comparing this April to April of 2012.

In the article, Passan highlights the loss in velocity for aces like Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, while also identifying 13 pitchers who have seen the biggest decline in their average fastball speed (in terms of mph):

Jered Weaver (-3.1 mph), Sabathia (-2.2), Zack Greinke (-1.9), Verlander (-1.9), Jonathon Niese (-1.9), Matt Moore (-1.8), Philip Humber (-1.7), Mat Latos (-1.5), Clayton Richard (-1.5), Chris Sale (-1.3), Gio Gonzalez (-1.3), James McDonald (-1.3) and Max Scherzer (-1.3).

While MLB fans and fantasy baseball players are sure to be worried, when it comes to baseball betting strategy, should bettors share that concern as well?

In order to test this, we turned to our trusty Bet Labs software and created a simple MLB system with the following filters:

1. Season: 2012
2. Season Type: Regular Season
3. Pitcher: (we added each of the 13 pitchers listed in Passan’s article)
4. Game Month: April

Using those four filters, we isolated the performances of these 13 pitchers from April of 2012 and have shown the results in the screenshot below.

As you can see, when this group of MLB starters took the mound for their respective teams, MLB bettors earned a profit of +2.88 Units and a 4.8% ROI.

Now that we’ve established this baseline, we can simply switch the Season filter from 2012 to 2013 and see how the loss in velocity has affected MLB betting so far this April.

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Surprisingly, through April 21st, the pitchers highlighted by Passan have actually improved over 2012. MLB bettors wagering on every game started by these 13 pitchers have won +3.05 Units for a ROI of 7.1%.

In full disclosure, there are still nine days worth of MLB games to be played this April that will directly influence results and, even after April is completed, analyzing fewer than two month’s worth of results is hardly a sample size large enough to draw statistically significant conclusions.

However, we are confident enough to say that declines in velocity shouldn’t automatically deter MLB bettors from backing certain starting pitchers and this concept is something we’d like to analyze more in the future.

The post Baseball Betting Strategy: Should You Avoid Pitchers Experiencing Velocity Drops? appeared first on Sports Insights.